Gale Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 210207 CCB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
440 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

CORRECTED HEADLINE FOR ZONE 130

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WED. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED AND WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THU.

$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
440 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTH EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF NORTH EASTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
440 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
SOUTHEAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST TUE JAN 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF DEVELOPING A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE BEYOND DAY 3. A
SLIGHT BLEND TO THE 00Z GFS WAS USED IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE IN THE MIDRANGE AND LONGRANGE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A WEAKER RIDGE
IS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE BERING
SEA IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TWO MAIN LOW CENTERS...SOUTH OF
ADAK AND WELL SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
DEPARTING SOUTHCENTRAL AND MOVING NORTHEAST. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED WAVES ARE CREATING STRONG WINDS AND PRECIP THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL. A 1045 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARD THE CANADIAN YUKON...INCREASING GAP WINDS IN THE USUAL
AREAS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND
EAST OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...INCLUDING VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS...AND
THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH WARNING
LEVEL.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS...WHERE WIND AND
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO BE NEARLY ALL RAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
PRIBILOFS WHICH WILL SEE MAINLY SNOW WITH RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES. NO
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH STRONG WIND HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE AS FAR EAST AS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL SKETCHY...IT LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE IS
COMING TO ALASKA. THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING
DOWN TO A MORE TRANSIENT FLOW. WHILE THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES...THE EXACT PATH OF INDIVIDUAL LOWS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160 165 170 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD JAN 09