Gale Warning 860, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1207 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING GULF
SYSTEM.  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TOWARDS KAYAK ISLAND SAT MORNING.
THIS LOW THEN MOVES INLAND SAT NEAR ICY BAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT UPPER LEVELS TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
BERING SEA DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OVER KENAI PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORMS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY.
CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...MAIN ISSUE IS THE POSITION OF GULF LOW BY SAT
MORNING...WILL IMPACT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN CORDOVA...VALDEZ...AND COPPER
BASIN. EXPECTING SOME SNOW FOR THESE ZONES BUT GENERIC AMOUNTS FOR
NOW...HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM KAYAK ISLAND EASTWARD.  ISSUED A
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THOMPSON PASS- SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS IN PASS WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS IN VALDEZ.  COLD AIR ON WEST SIDE OF LOW
SHOULD GENERATE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS THROUGH GAPS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL SAT AND SUN.

NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND GREATER BERING SEA
REGION THROUGH MON. STILL EXPECTING A WEATHER FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN BERING ON SUNDAY AS IT HEADS FOR ST. MATTHEW ISLAND ON
TUE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MAIN ACTIVITY IS IN THE BERING AS ELONGATED LOW AND REMNANTS OF FRONT
MOVE INTO EASTERN BERING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
AK...HOWEVER TRACK RECORD FOR MODELS AS OF LATE NOT VERY CONSISTENT
SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 131- THOMPSON PASS
MARINE...MANY GALES AND STORMS- SEE PACKAGES FOR SPECIFICS
FIRE WEATHER...UNLIKELY

JMP NOV 09