Gale Warning 81, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL WEAKEN TO 996 MB NEAR
KODIAK CITY SUN EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 60 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SEWARD MON MORNING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR SEWARD MON
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 40 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE POWERFUL SYSTEM WHICH STORMED
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALASKA YESTERDAY IS NOW EXITING OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA. CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH
SOME RESIDUAL STRONG WINDS HANGING ON OVER THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING DUE TO ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
MELTING SNOW...AS WELL AS ICE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS...BUT CONDITIONS
ARE STEADILY IMPROVING. ARCTIC AIR HAS MOVED BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES NOW DOWN TO SINGLE
DIGITS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE HAS ALSO
BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE ALONG THE
WEST EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS THEREFORE TRACKING FARTHER EAST ALONG 151W.
THE FIREHOUSE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY POINTED TOWARD THE
YAKUTAT AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD A WARM
FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT IS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD...DIRECTING A LOT
OF THAT MOISTURE BACK TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. MEANWHILE...OUT WEST A
SERIES OF LOWS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS. MOST NOTEWORTHY IS A LOW JUST WEST OF
ADAK TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING WITH A WELL DEFINED OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. A DEVELOPING LOW IS ALSO TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC JET DOWN AROUND 40N 170W.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ALL INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS...BUT DETAILS
IN LOW POSITIONS AND TRACKS DO DIFFER. WITH NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF PREFER A CONSENSUS POSITION OF ECMWF/NAM. OUT WEST WILL STICK
WITH BLEND OF GFS/CURRENT GRIDS FOR THE SHORT-TERM...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES FROM CURRENT FORECAST. BY MID WEEK MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE...SO WILL STICK
CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. COOLER AIR IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY BACK
IN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE WARM FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF WILL OCCLUDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS IT REACHES
SOUTHCENTRAL. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING AS THIS FRONT NEARS. HOWEVER...FOR LOCATIONS
ON THE INLAND SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE...THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM. SO THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ENOUGH COOLING WILL
TAKE PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW WHEN IT ARRIVES. THE
FREEZING LEVEL ON THE ANCHORAGE SOUNDING WAS 4156 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING WILL BE A KEY INDICATOR TO HOW MUCH COOLING
HAS OCCURRED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IT WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY
RAIN...AND MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS MELTING HELPS COOL THE
COLUMN A BIT. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW WILL BE VERY WET AND WILL NOT
ACCUMULATE MUCH. SO...UNLESS NEW INFORMATION SHOWS
OTHERWISE...FORECAST WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. RAIN
ALONG THE COAST MAY CAUSE FURTHER LOCALIZED FLOODING OR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...SO FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE RE-ISSUED.
MODELS INDICATE A LOW TRACK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...SO COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN FROM THE WEST AND
GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...BRINGING A DRYING TREND BACK
TO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A NARROW BAND OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN BRISTOL
BAY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. SNOW
WILL LIKELY SPREAD UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AND THEN END BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE GULF SYSTEM. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF LOW WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ALASKA RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHILE THE
REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA STAYS DRY AND COLD DUE TO A BUILDING
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE MULTIPLE LOWS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL
ALL TRACK NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH...WITH THE LOW WEST OF ADAK BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
MAKER. MEANWHILE THE LOW DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET WILL
DEEPEN...WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND INDUCING AMPLIFICATION OF
THE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WITH A TROUGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE
PUSHED FARTHER EAST OVER MAINLAND LOWER 48 AND CANADA. MOISTURE WILL
BE PUSHED NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THIS NEW RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE NEWLY BUILT RIDGE
CUTTING OFF OVER WESTERN ALASKA MID WEEK AND BUILDING OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. THERE IS THEN DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THIS RIDGE QUICKLY
JOINS BACK WITH BLOCKING RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA OR HOLDS AS A
CUT-OFF OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. IN EITHER CASE...THE RIDGE WILL BRING
QUIETER AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES) WEATHER TO MAINLAND
ALASKA MID TO LATE WEEK. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
RIDGE...STORMS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 101 CHESTER CREEK AT ARCTIC BLVD.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 170 172 175 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 09