Gale Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 080031
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-081500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 MB LOW NEAR 45N 175W WILL MOVE NEAR 55N 151W AT 986 MB THU
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$

PKZ411-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56N...OTHERWISE FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56N...OTHERWISE FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-081500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED JAN 7 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE OMEGA BLOCK WITH A STRONG HOLD OVER
THE BERING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA DEEPENS
AND SHIFTS EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA FROM A LOW OVER CANADA AND IS SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALL THAT REMAINS
OVER THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
COLD AIR SOUTH AND A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
STILL REMAIN...BUT IS SLOWLY RELAXING AS THE TROUGH IN THE GULF
WEAKENS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS HANDLE THE CURRENT PROGRESSION
SIMILARLY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THAT.
THE GFS STALLS OUT A PARENT LOW WEST OF KODIAK WHILE DEVELOPING A 989
MB TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG A FRONT FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE GULF
FRIDAY...THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT DOES NOT CREATE A TRIPLE
POINT. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION OF ALL OF THE
MODELS AND IS THE SLOWEST IN BUILDING IN A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IN A TRIPLE POINT
LOW...ONLY MOVING IN A FRONT AND PUSHING THE LOW OUT BEHIND IT
SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT POINT...THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW HEADING
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE ECMWF HAS MORE
OF A WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...CLEAR...COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN A
STAPLE OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WEATHER DIET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND
THOMPSON PASS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES NEED ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WIND TO
DROP WIND CHILLS TO -40 DEGREES...AND TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE 20 TO 40 RANGE THROUGH MOUNTAINS AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

SOUTHWEST...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE BETHEL ZONE IS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIE DOWN...ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO RISE ABOVE -40. THE
WESTERN AKPEN WILL SEE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING BY
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW ADVANCES TOWARDS
THE AREA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN CHAIN CONTINUES TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...BRINGING AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS BY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS LOW
AS THE MODELS STILL STRUGGLE WITH THE CURRENT EVOLUTION AND
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. THE OVERALL TREND REMAINS FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL BRING STORM SYSTEMS NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. THIS MAY INCREASE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL AREA WARMING TRENDS...EVENTUALLY REACHING
AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING...132 150 155 165 170 172 185 179 413 414
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 130 140 141 160 165 179 411 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SSS/DS JAN 09