Gale Warning 794, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT CONTINUE TO A
FEW DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BETTER SOLUTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. A
WESTERLY JET STREAMS LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACK WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY, COOK INLET AND KODIAK ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR BETTLES THURSDAY AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE WEATHER FRONT OVER WESTERN SOUTH-CENTRAL REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT AND INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY AND PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAIN BE HEAVY AT TIMES JUST AHEAD OF IT,
BUT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT.

STRONG WEST WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TO NIGHT AND DIMINISH THURSDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING SEA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR BETHEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW TONIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE GULF FRIDAY. MORE SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
GULF FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALASKA FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 942 MB OVER THE GULF SATURDAY THEN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN CANADA SUNDAY. A RESIDUAL 984 MB LOW WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE GULF SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
MARINE...STORM 180
         GALE 120 125 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM NOV 09