Gale Warning 748, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU OCT 22 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA CONNECTS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO ANOTHER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A RIDGE ALSO
PERSISTS OVER WESTERN CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...A NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A WEAKEN LOW NEAR SAND POINT IS VERTICALLY STACKED
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER LOW HAD MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE CENTER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO LOSE
CONSENSUS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST
CONSISTENT SOLUTION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SATURDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY. THE HIGH
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE
UPPER FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THE NEW STORM OVER THE GULF WILL TURN WEST AND MOVE THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR DILLINGHAM FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG EAST
WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
KENAI MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS AND RAIN TO THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY
FRIDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA, WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL ON THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. ISOLATED FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINLY IN TODAY'S LONG TERM MODELS THAT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120 130
         GALE 125 129 130 132 138 140 150 160 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 09