Gale Warning 745, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
345 PM AKDT WED OCT 21 2009

UPDATE TO MARINE WARNINGS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS WEAKEN A
LITTLE SINCE TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND LINKS UP WITH A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A RIDGE
REMAIN OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH
A WEAKER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WITH A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS
HAVE BETTER SOLUTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL STEER STORMS FORMING
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC IN THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL
BECOME SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL TURN WEST AND MOVE NEAR KING SALMON
FRIDAY. MORE RAIN AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF EARLY THURSDAY AND SPREAD ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK
ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SOUTHWEST...
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD
TO THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST AND THROUGH
CHANNELED TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL
BECOME SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING WILL DISSIPATE
SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A NEW LOW
FORMING NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TURN EAST INTO BRISTOL BAY
MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ZONE 161.
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALES...125 130 140 170 171 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM OCT 09