Gale Warning 646, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211426 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

UPDATED ZONES 120 121 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE ON SHORE 50 NM 
EAST OF SEWARD AT 996 MB MON AFTERNOON.WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD INTO THE GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. W OF CAPE
CLEARE...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 
50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING
TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
625 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SW 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 220000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
INLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER 
THE GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED.

$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14
FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.

.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.

.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
DIMINISHING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.

.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT SUN SEP 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE GFS...GEM...UKMET...SREF...AND EUROPEAN ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OF THE
GULF MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE NAM CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER
AND GENERALLY DISCARDED...LIKELY DUE TO UNREASONABLE AMPLIFICATION OF
A SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.

ON THE WEST SIDE...ATTENTION IS TURNED TOWARDS A STRONG STORM-FORCE
LOW THAT WAS ONCE SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN. MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A
DECENT JOB WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A 12Z GFS
AND 00Z EUROPEAN BLEND USED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ITS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH TRACK FROM THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AFTER THAT...DETAILS
BECOMING A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
LOW WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS AND STRENGTHENS TO ITS IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 978 MB LOW LOCATED UNDER A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE NORTH TOWARDS EVENTUAL LANDFALL LATE MONDAY MORNING NEAR SEWARD
ON THE KENAI PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...A RAPIDLY MOVING 530 DM UPPER LOW
IS HEADING RAPIDLY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN ON ITS
EVENTUAL DESTINATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA OVER
THE COMING DAYS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF
LOW...BUT THESE WILL ROTATE AROUND IN TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WILL
NOT PLAY A MAJOR ROLE ON THE WEATHER EXCEPT IN OUR OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO MENTION IS THE LOW THAT WAS
ONCE SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN...AND THIS FEATURE IS STILL SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE DETERMINING JUST HOW STRONG THE BARRIER JET WILL BE THAT
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. CURRENT THINKING RIGHT NOW IS
THAT STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR EARLY
MONDAY WITH WINDS AT STRONG GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THIS REGION
WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE RAINFALL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...WHERE
TOPOGRAPHY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INDUCE FAIRLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SUCH AS IN ANCHORAGE...AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS DIVING SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IS ABLE TO INDUCE LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON WILL OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
COMBINES WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE LIFT FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SNOW AND
SNOW SHOWERS. WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FORECASTED TO CRASH INTO
THE 1290S BY 18Z TUESDAY AS DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT TERMINATION DUST
WILL FALL...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EVEN DOWN TO SEA LEVEL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE PRECIPITATION LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON THURSDAY.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE...WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ALONG THE BORDER OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
ZONE AND THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. POP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH MOSTLY SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION TRANSITIONING TO
RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD
SPILL ACROSS THE REGION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE ENTIRE MAINLAND REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WILL
MOVE IN TO THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY DURING THE DAY
MONDAY...BRINGING GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN STAY A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD TO A
LOCATION WELL SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN WEST CREATING A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ON THE NORTH AND THEN WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW IN THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN BERING SEA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THE LOW AFFECTING THE
ALEUTIANS THIS WEEK WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST THAT
WILL BE USHERING COLD AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE DOWN THROUGH THE BERING
SEA. ATTENTION WILL THEN LIKELY NEED TO BE FOCUSED ON THE GULF FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE
COAST FOR SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT IN A SEEMINGLY
NEVERENDING PARADE OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 130 132 172 175
         STORM WARNING...176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC SEP 09