Gale Warning 606, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 030116 AAB
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
516 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

UPDATED ZONES 170 171 172 179

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA THU NIGHT AT 990 MB AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD ON FRI. A 998 MB
LOW 40 NM WEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK
THU AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-031400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W OF SAND POINT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. E OF SAND POINT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W OF COLD BAY...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF COLD BAY...NW WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-031400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
505 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031400-
UNALASKA BAY
505 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
505 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT W OF ATKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W OF ATKA...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. E OF ATKA...E
WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING
SIDE. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT W OF 180...6 FT E OF
180. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT W OF 180...9 FT E
OF 180. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
515 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 031112
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040200-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA THU NIGHT AT 990 MB AND THEN DRIFT EASTWARD ON FRI. A 998 MB
LOW 40 NM WEST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 285 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK
THU AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-040200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-040200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-040200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 3 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR SAINT GEORGE ISLAND IN 
THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM AKDT WED SEP 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THIS MORNING IS DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF/NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS MOTION IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
A STRONG TROPICAL JET (ESTIMATED MAX SPEED AROUND 120 KT) WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...ACTUALLY PRODUCING STRONG DIGGING OF A SLIGHTLY
OUT-OF PHASE SHORT-WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW
HAS NOW DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THIS SHORT-WAVE. THIS JET WILL
SOON COMBINE WITH A MUCH WEAKER JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND PUSH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

SYNOPTIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST HAS
PRODUCED STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WITH DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOW
BEING PUSHED INLAND AS THE EASTERN BERING TROUGH BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO THE GULF AND WINDS ARE DIMINISHING...SO THAT
LIGHT RAIN IS AGAIN FALLING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN BERING LOW
ALONG WITH DECENT JET SUPPORT ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ARE WORKING TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING DOWN
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE DOMINATES WEST OF HERE...ALTHOUGH A SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLIES IS AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. MINOR DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN
HANDLING OF EASTERN BERING SURFACE LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
GULF AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NEWLY FORMED LOW NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS/NAM SWING THE NEW LOW TOWARD THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AND ABSORB THE BERING LOW INTO THIS NEW LOW.
THE ECMWF/UKMET QUICKLY MERGE THE TWO LOWS BACK TO THE WEST
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. A RUN-TO-RUN COMPARISON SHOWS EACH
MODEL TO BE CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF. CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION SO PLAN TO STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.
THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS WOULD BE FOR THE GULF AND KODIAK
ISLAND.

MODELS HAVE A MORE SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DEFINITE TREND TOWARD
SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEW
FORECAST.

THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED FROM INTERIOR ALASKA TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WHICH ALLOWS A SHORT-WAVE TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE YUKON TO ANCHORAGE ON SATURDAY. PRIOR TO THIS MODELS HAD
CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS PASSING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A DRAMATIC CHANGE AM
NOT READY TO BUY INTO IT YET...BUT WITH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS
WILL TREND TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
FAR WEST AS ANCHORAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS THE EASTERN BERING LOW TRANSITIONS
TO THE GULF TONIGHT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE EAST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH...RESULTING IN DRYING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT AND SPREADING TOWARD THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
PROCESS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF THE GULF...SO THAT ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL
(INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND) WILL DRY OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY
LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE BERING SEA TO INTERIOR ALASKA. HOWEVER...MODELS
NOW INDICATE THAT A SHORT-WAVE WILL NOW TRACK BETWEEN THE INTERIOR
RIDGE AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW...HEADING FROM THE YUKON
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN TO ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA. IF SO...SATURDAY WILL BE A RAINY DAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACKING OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW...SO WILL WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS WITH THE NEXT FORECAST TONIGHT. EVEN IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD CLEAR BACK OUT BY SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES DOWN INTO THE GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A NICE WEEKEND. AN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW FORMING SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS
HAS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH A RIDGE
TO THE EAST THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT...SO EXPECT
GALE FORCE WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MATURE
INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED CUT-OFF LOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STEERING FLOW. THUS..THE LOW WILL STALL SOUTH OF SHEMYA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
THIS WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS QUITE
LOW DUE TO LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS POINTING TOWARD A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
CENTERED AROUND 160W. THIS WOULD FOCUS STORM SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF...PRODUCING WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 09