Gale Warning 594, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE WEAKER ON PRESSURE
WITH WESTERN BERING LOW AND WITH THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH ACCEPTABLE SOLUTIONS FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH 72 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA PENINSULA IS
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO KODIAK TODAY...OVER AN INCH SINCE 4AM/ WITH
STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUND. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING GENERALLY
TO 40 MPH OVER KODIAK AND THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY. GALES ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE GULF AND BARREN ISLANDS.

IN THE WEST RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BERING, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS ACROSS THOSE REGIONS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AROUND 40MPH. RAIN HAS
BEEN STAYED EAST OF DILLINGHAM IN BRISTOL BAY WITH SNOW/RAIN AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
MOVE TO EAST OF CORDOVA BY FRI EVENING.  WITH THIS LOW EXPECT RAIN
WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY FROM EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY AND KODIAK TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT
GALES IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WITH STORMS NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST
THIS EVENING AND GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW
FRIDAY.

THE LOW OVER BERING SEA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW WITH GALE WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE INTO GULF ON
SUNDAY AND THEN INTO CANADA ON MONDAY. A STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120.
         GALES 130 132 138 140 150 155 170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JWP SEP 09