Gale Warning 591, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 232345
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241400-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 50N 163W WILL MOVE TO 60N 147W AT 987 MB FRI.

$$

PKZ351-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 TO 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 23 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250200-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW NEAR 54N 165W WILL MOVE TO 58N 139W FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO 1004 MB.
$$

PKZ351-250200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 242314
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW AT 54N 155W WILL MOVE TO 59N 146W AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON ON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

700 
FZAK61 PAFC 250113 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
615 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

UPDATED ZONES 351 AND 352 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251400-
400 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 983 MB LOW AT 54N 155W WILL MOVE TO 59N 146W AND WEAKEN TO 988 MB
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON ON SATURDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
615 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
615 PM AKDT THU SEP 24 2009

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT SHIFTING TO S IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 251156
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260200-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 58N 150W WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 60N 146W SATURDAY
MORNING. A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 56N 156W SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
57N 149W SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANCE IN PRESSURE.  

$$

PKZ351-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2009

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO W 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 22 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM..GFS..AND ECMWF ARE WITHIN 100 MILES OF EACH
OTHER WITH THE BIG LOW MOVING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.  SOLUTIONS
ARE EQUALLY CLOSE FOR OTHER FEATURES SUCH AS THE RIDGE EAST OF THE
LOW AND A SECONDARY LOW IN THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE
SECONDARY LOW AND DOWN STREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  BERING.  THE
DIFFERENCE IS MOST APPARENT IN THE GFE RELAXING THE NORTHWEST
GRADIENT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA
FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TRACK..TIMING AND
INTENSITY ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH THURSDAY.  TIMING WISE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SECONDARY LOW ON FRIDAY MENTIONED ABOVE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS (REMNANTS OF TYPHOON CHOI-WAN) THAT IS TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AS IS MOVES TO JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THURSDAY
AND TO NEAR CORDOVA BY LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.  A STATIONARY
UPPER LOW JUST INLAND FROM NORTON SOUND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AS THE ALEUTIAN STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.  A LOW IN THE COLD AIR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY TO SOUTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
OUT EAST...COOLER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN BE CONFINED TO NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.  GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THROUGHOUT COOK INLET AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE YUKON. THE NEXT BIG STORM WILL BRING WIND AND
RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST THURSDAY.  EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL THURSDAY
AND RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THIS IS A WARM FORMER TROPICAL
SYSTEM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH..ABOVE 4000 FEET AND PRECIPITATION
MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY OVER SOUTHEAST UP SLOPE AREAS.

OUT WEST...A STRONG LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
LOW. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY A
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE WESTERN BERING.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ASSUMING THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRACKS INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY
SATURDAY SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE NEXT LOW ON SUNDAY IS STILL A QUESTION.  IF IT
REMAINS OVER THE GULF IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON SOUTH CENTRAL.
FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL.  OUT WEST
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER STORM MOVING TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY LATE SATURDAY AND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175 155 150 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH SEP 09