Gale Warning 566, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM OUT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEANING TOWARD THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE DETAIL MAINLY IN
THE EAST WHICH IS BETTER PICKING UP ON SOME TERRAIN ENHANCED
FEATURES. THEN TRENDING TO TO THE NEW GFS. OUT WEST THE MODELS STILL
A LITTLE SLOW MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE WESTERN BERING BUT SEEMS TO
BE CATCHING UP TO THE ACTUAL POSITION

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD IN OVER SOUTHWEST AND PUSH
EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. A FRONT FROM A LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY ALONG COOK INLET AND THE COASTAL
AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST AREAS. A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTH
OF US TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS
SHORT WAVE BUT PRECIPITATION TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL BY MONDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT SPREADING SOUTH BY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST

INTO WEDNESDAY KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL CLOUDY AND WET.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER BRISTOL BAY AND WITH THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST STRATUS DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE DELTA AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST FROM THE
BERING BY SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ALONG A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
RAIN SPREADING OVER MOST AREAS BY MONDAY.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD EAST TODAY REACHING THE PRIBILOFS BY
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
ROTATES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL ROTATE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 141
MARINE...GALES 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 09