Gale Warning 556, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 271150
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-280200-
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MOVES TO 175 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK CITY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATES. A NORTH PACIFIC
LOW MOVES TO A POSITION 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY SATURDAY MORNING
AT 1000 MB AND MOVES INTO THE GULF SATURDAY EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-280200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-280200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-280200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-280200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-280200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-280200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-280200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-280200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-280200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
BERING...WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS OVER SOUTHWEST AK...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. A NARROW AND WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AK THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW COMPLEX IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF AK. THE
MOST PRONOUNCED LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 50TH PARALLEL. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX IS KEEPING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON VAMCO ARE
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BRINGING STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAIN
TO THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. FAIR WEATHER EXISTS BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE
GENERAL PATTERN INVOLVES A LARGE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH THE EMBEDDED LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF 50N MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF TYPHOON VAMCO WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW COMPLEX ON FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS WAS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE LOW COMPLEX AFFECTS THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE AND WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THROUGH TONIGHT. GOOD
ONSHORE FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. PRIMARY
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING
BARRIER JET ALONG THE COAST. WINDS UP TO STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED...WITH WIDESPREAD GALES ALONG COASTAL WATERS.

.SOUTHWEST...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH...WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AREAS OF ENHANCED TERRAIN. THE AKPEN WILL SEE RAIN AND
SHOWERS FROM FORMER TYPHOON VAMCO AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC...AS WELL AS FROM THE LOW MOVING TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND ON
FRIDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
STRONG WIND AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TYPHOON VAMCO
WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WILL LEAVE QUIET WEATHER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE CHARACTERISTIC LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE
GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK. BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 141
         HIGH WIND WARNING 187
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 172
         GALE 138 140 155 165 170 171 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH AUG 09