Gale Warning 549, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 241110
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-250200-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 230 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO 994 MB 90 NM
NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK AT 992 MB TUE MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 530 
NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 1001 MB TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN
MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT 1000 MB LATE TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-250200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-250200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-250200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-250200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-250200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-250200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-250200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-250200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-250200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-250200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-250200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-250200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF HAS BEEN ALMOST ENTIRELY ERODED BY A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS CROSSING
OVER THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL VERY WEAK LOWS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE BASE OF THE
EASTERN BERING SEA TROUGH IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOWS THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DIG OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA IS ALSO WEAKENING AND GIVING WAY TO
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE BASIC MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
VAMCO THAT TRAVERSE THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS MIDWEEK. FOR THIS
FEATURE...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH
THE NAM NOW THE EXCEPTION WITH ITS SLOWER SPEED. THUS WILL USE THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE MORNING FORECAST BEGINNING MIDWEEK AND
TRANSITION TO THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
AS THE FRONT OVER WESTERN ALASKA MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. SHOWERS ALREADY IMPACTING THE COAST
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY THIS
EVENING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE SEEING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. A
DECENT POOL OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS IN THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE...PRIMARILY IMPACTING INTERESTS AROUND KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
BARREN ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. MODERATE WESTERLY ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN
TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS COMING TO AN END AS A LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN
BERING MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY...STRONG
WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE LEFTOVERS OF TYPHOON VAMCO
QUICKLY MOVE IN WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF WILL KEEP VERY
UNSETTLED WEATHER LARGELY SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW IN THE
GULF...PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY START TO SHIFT BACK TO THE BERING
SEA...BUT THIS IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN. IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT
MODELS HISTORICALLY STRUGGLE DURING THE SPRING AND FALL TRANSITION
SEASONS...WILL REMAIN RETICENT TO PUTTING TOO MUCH FAITH IN ANY
PARTICULAR MODEL AT THIS POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD AUG 09