Gale Warning 547, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 222347
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
WESTERN ALASKA SAT NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 400 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA SUN MORNING AND MOVE EAST TO 125 NM NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR
MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-231400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE OLD LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THIS LOW IS KEEPING SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
FARTHER WEST THE LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA BY SUNDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM THEY ARE DOING VERY WELL.
THINGS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GFS LOW BEING SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF. ALL THREE
MODELS VARY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AS WELL. AFTER THIS THE
WHEEL COME OFF AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION
PRESENTED FOR THE BERING SEA AREA. BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A RIDGE OR A MODERATE LOW RESPECTIVELY IN THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK IS THE
REMNANT OF AN OLD TYPHOON AND MODELS ARE USUALLY VERY BAD AT
RESOLVING THESE SYSTEMS. NOT MANY IF ANY CHANGES WILL BE MADE PAST
THREE DAYS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE IS SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
MODEL AT THIS POINT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THEN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT IS CREATING AN UNUSUALLY CLEAR
AREA IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS MAY
SEE A LITTLE SUNSHINE BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECASTS DUE TO THE HUGE DISPARITY IN MODELS SOLUTIONS RESOLVING THE
REMNANTS OF THE OLD TYPHOON MOVING TOWARD THE BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 09