Gale Warning 537, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 030353 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
750 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

UPDATED ZONE 150

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031400-
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 LOW 90 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB 120 NM
NORTH OF SAINT PAUL SUN NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A 
1002 MB LOW 480 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL STRENGTHEN TO 997 MB
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR MON NIGHT THEN MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF SAINT GEORGE 
TUE AFTERNOON. 1002 MB LOW 550 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 
230 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 1007 MB 
300 NM SOUTH OF ATKA TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-031400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
750 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ155-031400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-031400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E WIND 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-031400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 031133
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040200-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 MB LOW 320 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 290 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK AT 1005 MB TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE NIGHT. A 999
MB LOW 280 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 998 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-040200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-040200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-040200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-040200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF CAPE MENDENHALL...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. N OF CAPE
MENDENHALL...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF CAPE MENDENHALL...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. N OF CAPE
MENDENHALL...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W OF UNALASKA...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. E OF UNALASKA...E
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...BECOMING SW WIND 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...ON THE PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. ON THE BERING
SIDE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING
SIDE. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
 
$$

PKZ171-040200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-040200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SEGUAM
ISLAND W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SEGUAM ISLAND E...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...OTHERWISE 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-040200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE MAINLY N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-040200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-040200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A LONG-LIVED AND HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL RESIDING IN THE BERING SEA THIS
MORNING. A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW IS UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND IS PREPARING TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
ENTER THE BERING. THIS LOW IS BRINGING AREAS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE GULF...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE IT AT THE
UPPER LEVELS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER ON TRACK FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH MAIN WEATHER CONCERN BEING HOW MUCH MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. DO
EXPECT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES IN MOST OF THE USUAL LOCATIONS TODAY.
DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS IN THE GULF...MARINE STRATUS
HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND IS THUS NOT A MAJOR FORECAST CONCERN TODAY.
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN ARE  A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

.SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE WEAK LOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY...KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND ALASKA
PENINSULA REGIONS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW QUICKLY LOSES STEAM. A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING GOOD CHANCES OF
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ALL POINTS
EASTWARD STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN GENERALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH PERIODS OF STRONGER GUSTS ESPECIALLY THROUGH FAVORED
GAPS IN TERRAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. DISCORD BEGINS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND IMPACTING KODIAK ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AS EXPECTED...THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA. THE NAM WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING TO A NAM/GFS BLEND IN THE MIDRANGE.
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST DUE TO PERSISTING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE BERING WILL LOSE JET SUPPORT AND BECOME A
CLOSED UPPER LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SPIN IN PLACE IN
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT BY A POSSIBLE PATTERN
SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AMPLIFIED
FLOW OF THE PAST WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN INTO LARGELY ZONAL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DETAILS AT THIS POINT ARE QUITE LOW...BUT
LIKELY IMPACTS FOR MAINLAND ALASKA WILL INCLUDE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WITH PERIODIC BUT SHORT-LIVED WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION...NOT AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY FALL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 121 145
MARINE...GALE 155 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD AUG 09