Gale Warning 528, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 250008 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251400-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR 54N 167W WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC
MON NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUE AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA WED. A 996 MB LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO NEAR 50N 167E AT 993 MB TUE
AFTERNOON THEN TO NEAR 56N 175W AT 976 MB WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251106
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260200-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A STRONG 993 MB LOW NEAR 45N 161E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 983 MB NEAR 
55N 177W WED MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB
NEAR 53N 167W LATE WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 252359
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261400-
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 51N 168E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 982 MB NEAR 55N 174W
WED AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB NEAR 50N 162W
THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING THU.
$$

PKZ411-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN. 
.WED...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON AUG 24 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT
THAT CROSSED INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE WEST HAS STALLED AS
EXPECTED AND IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS ALLOWED PARTIAL CLEARING AT
MANY LOCATIONS...HOWEVER THE MASSIVE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE CENTRAL
BERING LOW IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE SURFACE
LOW RAPIDLY TRANSITING THE BERING IS BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW OFFSHORE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD BETHEL THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST WITH REGARDS TO THE IMPACT OF FORMER TYPHOON VAMCO AS IT
PARALLELS THE ALEUTIANS MIDWEEK AND DROPS INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE GULF. THE IMPACT OF FORMERLY TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS OFTEN
UNDERESTIMATED IN THESE SITUATIONS...THUS IT WOULD BE PRUDENT NOT TO
FLOUT CONVENTIONAL WISDOM ON THE MATTER. NOT SURPRISINGLY...A
DEFINITE STRENGTHENING TREND IS NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS REGARDING THIS FEATURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN COOK INLET SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING OVER
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. RAIN AND GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THE LOW
WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. AFTER A VERY BRIEF RESPITE...ALL EYES SHIFT TO
THE FORMER TROPICAL LOW IMPACTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE REST OF THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP
WINDS AT GALE FORCE AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE
POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS. WILL BE MONITORING
THIS CLOSELY AND REFINING THE FORECAST AS NEW MODELS COME IN. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT THIS STORM WILL PASS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS CROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING AND MOVE INTO THIS TROUGH...EACH TIME REINFORCING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE AREA. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THESE
STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT TO MOST
LOCATIONS BEING OCCASIONAL RAIN AND 20-30KT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF. STARTING THIS WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS OF STORMS MAY
SHIFT BACK TO THE BERING AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...BUT THIS IS FAR
FROM CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD AUG 09