Gale Warning 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 272316
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281400-
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF SAINT PAUL CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST WHILE WEAKENING AND BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A 1004 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND
POINT ON TUE AFTERNOON MOVES NORTH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY WED 
AT 1001 MB. A 1006 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 150 NM 
SOUTH OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E OF SAND POINT...SE WIND 25 KT. W OF SAND POINT...N WIND 20
KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT PACIFIC SIDE....3 FT BERING
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE...4 FT BERING SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT PACIFIC SIDE...3 FT BERING
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT PACIFIC SIDE...3 FT BERING SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE...2
FT ON THE BERING SIDE. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 AM AKDT MON JUL 27 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AFFECTING ALL OF WESTERN AND PART OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. TO THE EAST A PRONOUNCED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF AS A
SERIES OF CLOSED LOWS. SEVERAL OF THESE LOWS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE
BERING...WITH ONE RETROGRADING INTO EASTERN RUSSIA...TWO MORE LOCATED
IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...AND ONE APPROACHING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.THE CLOSEST LOW WILL IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA TODAY...WITH THE
LOWS IN THE PACIFIC MOVING IN MID-WEEK. CONTRASTING THESE SYSTEMS IS
A RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF THESE LOWS AS THEY APPROACH THE MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME ASSESSING HOW THESE INDIVIDUAL LOWS
WILL REACT WITH THE LARGE RIDGE TO EAST. THE NEWEST RUNS OF BOTH THE
GFS AND THE EUROPEAN TAKE THE INCOMING LOW FURTHER INLAND THAN
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS WELL AS MAKE THE LOW STRONGER. PREVIOUS FORECAST
USED PRIMARILY ECMWF GUIDANCE...AND WILL STICK WITH THAT THINKING FOR
THIS FORECAST AS WELL.

MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH AND
EXACT POSITION OF EACH LOW AS THEY APPROACH THE MAINLAND...SO EVEN
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHORT TERM ATTENTION IS ON THE SERIES OF LOWS FORECASTED TO IMPACT
THE REGION. TODAY THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND WEAKEN...BRINGING WITH IT RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN AND PARTS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIP WILL EXTEND
ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND MAY IMPACT ANCHORAGE
ITSELF...ALTHOUGH TOTALS IN THE BOWL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HEAVY AS THE SYSTEM LAST WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN AND TURNAGAIN
ARM.

.HYDROLOGY...
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. ALTHOUGH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...WITH RIVERS NEAR ACTION STAGE
ANY ENHANCED PRECIP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THE KENAI PENINSULA FOR THIS REASON. IN ADDITION TO THE
FLOOD WATCH...A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SKILAK GLACIAL
DAM OUTBURST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...PLEASE SEE
LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.SOUTHWESTERN...
RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVE ON SHORE. THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

.BERING AND ALEUTIANS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS FOR AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOWS MOVE
TOWARDS MAINLAND ALASKA THEY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
ALEUTIANS...BRINGING RAIN...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WINDS.
WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AS EACH OF THESE LOWS
APPROACH...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN SHORT TERM...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN LONG TERM. AT CURRENT TIME MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO
HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SEVERAL LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE BERING.
DIFFERENCES ARISE ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL LOWS...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR WESTERN
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 121 125...FLOOD ADVISORY 121
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 138 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

TARALDSEN JUL 09