Gale Warning 508, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211908 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1110 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY TUE EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE EVENING. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
1110 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SE 35 KT LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO E 55 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO E
55 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 212315
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-221400-
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WEAKEN.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THIS FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
$$

PKZ120-221400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 45 KT...GUSTING TO 55 KT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND
DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-221400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-221400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...GUSTS TO 50 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-221400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ130-221400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT...GUSTING TO 40 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-221400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT BUILDING TO SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-221400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-221400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 6 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 35 KT DURING THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-221400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT MON JUL 20 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO TRANSITION...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE INTERIOR SLIPPING EASTWARD INTO CANADA. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN BERING AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL BERING AND IS MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE MAINLAND. GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A SURFACE FRONT IS
ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE BERING LOW. BY THEN END OF THIS WORK WEEK SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW...WITH
BOTH THE EMCWF AND THE GFS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOWING DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT BOTH SEEM TO AGREE A LARGE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN BERING BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT THIS WEEK AS THE BERING LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAJOR
IMPACT THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...A VERY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS AS THIS LOW MOVES ONSHORE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW HIGH
WIND WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD BE GUSTING TO NEAR 55MPH.
WILL POST A WIND HEADLINE IN THE ZFP TO ADVERTISE THIS...AS WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE IN JULY ARE UNCOMMON AND WILL HAVE AN ADVERSE IMPACT
ON THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT ON LAND...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...INCLUDING PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY TO SMALL CRAFT.

.SOUTHWEST...
WHILE THE WIND THREAT WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE THESE CONDITIONS
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MAINLAND
SOME POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND MAY EVEN GUST TO STORM FORCE. HAVE POSTED A GALE WARNING
TODAY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT. WHILE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG LATER IN THE WORK WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.BERING AND ALEUTIANS...
A CURRENT 995 MB LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND DEEPEN. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS THIS LOW WILL BE AROUND
975MB AT THE SURFACE AND BRING WITH IT SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
TO THE ENTIRE BERING. BY TUESDAY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN ARC WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
STORM FORCE. NUMEROUS GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW WEAKENS BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT RAIN WILL REMAIN LIKELY AS SURFACE LOW
STALLS NEAR BRISTOL BAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE BERING LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEN
RETROGRADE OUT INTO THE BERING. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS RETROGRADING LOW WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT
WILL MOVE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL
EXPERIENCE RAIN AS THIS LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 170 171 180 351 352

FIRE WEATHER...NONE

TARALDSEN JUL 09