Gale Warning 505, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA...WITH A
WEAKENING LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE AKPEN AND INTO KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
ALCAN BORDER AND AK PANHANDLE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS NEAR SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE GULF OF AK. A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW IS WEST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...THE EARLY MAKINGS OF A SURFACE LOW ARE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOLUTIONS TAKE THE
LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA
BY TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW AND WEATHER FRONT IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL.
DIFFERENCES ARISE MAINLY IN POSITIONING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA. THE FRONT AND
LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGH WINDS ALONG ELEVATED AND CHANNELED TERRAIN AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL BARRIER JET WILL
ALSO KEEP WINDS GUSTY ALONG COASTAL WATERS. TYPICAL DOWNSLOPED AREAS
WILL SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AS FLOW RAMPS UP...ALTHOUGH BETWEEN SYSTEMS
ONCE FLOW WEAKENS RAIN WILL FILL BACK IN. ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A REINFORCEMENT OF RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL BUT SEASONABLE.

.SOUTHWEST...
RAINY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DISSIPATES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THE NEXT
SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY...EXPECT ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS
AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO
BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...EXPECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO REMAIN CLOUDY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBS THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE LOW STALLS IN BRISTOL BAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO BE SITUATED
OVER THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...BERING SEA...AND ALEUTIANS...WITH COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 132 150 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH JUL 09