Gale Warning 501, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192308
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201400-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1006 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SEWARD AT 1007 MB SUN NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND MON MORNING ON
THE KENAI PENINSULA. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-201400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-201400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-201400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 10 KT SOUTH OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-201400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-201400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-201400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-201400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 19 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT SAT JUL 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALOFT...LARGE LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...WITH A BROAD TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE AK MAINLAND AND BERING SEA. THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW NEAR SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AK THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS BEGIN TO ARISE. PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS TO
THE LOW FORMING NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT LOW AFFECTING THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. NAM STILL PREFERRED
OVER THE BARRENS DUE TO BETTER RESOLUTION. MODELS STAY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK STALLING THE BERING LOW IN OR AROUND
BRISTOL BAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
VARIOUS SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
INLAND. RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY
TO COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING INHIBITING PRECIP FOR
THE MATSU VALLEY...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND WESTERN KENAI. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE NEGATED...WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS
AND AREAS OF ENHANCED AND CHANNELED TERRAIN WILL BE INCREASING
TOMORROW INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT AND LOW NEAR KODIAK IMPACT THE
AREA. EXPECTING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
COMING WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST...
COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE FRONT
AFFECTS THE AREA. MOST OF MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW
BEFORE THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION. RAIN AND
WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
EVOLVING PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL
BE CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN BERING...WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AK MAINLAND AS WELL. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH JUL 09