Gale Warning 496, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 101134
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110200-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF ATTU MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
INTO EASTERN RUSSIA SAT AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
REACHES THE CENTRAL BERING FRI NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATES. A 990 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR ATTU SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-110200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-110200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-110200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-110200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT...EXCEPT 3 FT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 4 FT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT PACIFIC SIDE...6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT PACIFIC SIDE...5 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-110200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8
FT W OF 176W. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
10 FT W OF 176W. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF 176W. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10
FT W OF 176W. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-110200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 10 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU JUL 9 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A TROF IS DRAPED THROUGH THE BERING WITH AN UPPER
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE IS PREDOMINANT THROUGH
THE GULF OF AK INTO THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. A SHORTWAVE TROF IS
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL AK...SE INTO THE N COPPER RIVER BASIN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING TOWARDS THE UPPER KUSKOWIM VALLEY
MOVING EAST. AT THE SURFACE A LOW NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA IS FILLING
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW BERING. ANOTHER LOW IS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVING EAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SATISFACTORILY HANDLING MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TRYING TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOOKS TO STRUGGLE. THE
LOW ROTATING TOWARDS THE GULF IS APPEARING TO BE WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN ITS EVENTUAL PROGRESSION. CONSISTENCY IN THE SOLUTIONS
ADEQUATE AT BEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TODAY THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...AND ALSO
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR MAINLAND. UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
AND KENAI PENINSULA FLATTENS A BIT AS THE UPPER-FEATURES ROTATE
THROUGH...BUT RE-BUILDS BY THE WEEKEND. IN THE INTERIM...ONGOING
FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HAZE AND SMOKE FOR A FAIRLY LARGE
SWATH OF THE ZONE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
KENAI PENINSULA.

.SOUTHWEST...
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE AKPEN AND KUSKOWIM DELTA GENERALLY
GIVING WAY TO OFF-SHORE FLOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS SUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE INTERIOR TO NOSE DOWN TOWARDS COASTAL AREAS
TOMORROW.

..BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE ZONE FROM SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS PREDOMINANT RIDGE
OVER THE MAINLAND BREAKS DOWN AND LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE BERING
MOVES EAST. AS SUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AOR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

*** JUL 09