Gale Warning 495, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER-LVLS A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AOR.
IN THE WEST...A LARGE TROF ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.
FURTHER EAST A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS PREDOMINANT FROM BRISTOL BAY
THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND INTERIOR AK. AT THE SURFACE A LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE SLIPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVING NORTH.
ALSO A RATHER WEAK TROF IS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF AK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT CAPTURING THE MAJOR FEATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MID-RANGE FORECAST PERIODS. THE MORE
SIZABLE DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN HOW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP OVER
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE EC FAVORS A STRONG AND
CONSOLIDATED LOW WHILE THE GFS FEATURES MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS. THE
GFS/NAM WERE EMPLOYED FOR THE SHORT-TERM AND EARLY MID-RANGE
FORECASTS. THE EC WAS FAVORED IN THE LONGER TERM DUE TO CONSISTENCY
AND A SLOWER PATTERN TRANSITION GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED FEATURES
PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE AOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE BULK OF ZONE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...FEATURING
WARM...DRY AND HAZY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SMOKE FROM
FOREST FIRES IN THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3
MILES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

.SOUTHWEST...
PATCHY FOG DURING THE MORNINGS ALONG THE AK PENINSULA AND KUSKOWIM
DELTA...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE ZONE...WITH HAZY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE KUSKOWIM VALLEY AND INTERIOR BRISTOL
BAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
PERIODS OF RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFFS AS LOW AND FRONT PASS THROUGH. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS IN THE
NORTHERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STRONG UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND AND TROF OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME SLIGHT
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAM JUL 09