Gale Warning 489, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 041205
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050200-
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW 650 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL DISSIPATE OVER
RUSSIA THIS MORNING. A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW 625 NM SOUTH OF ADAK
WILL MOVE TO 85 NM EAST OF ADAK AT 991 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 996 MB 225 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL BY SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-050200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-050200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-050200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-050200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-050200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-050200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-050200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM....WHILE LEANED
TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOR THE VERY END OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR ITS MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC REGION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT NARROW RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN AK PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WEAK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THIS IS
TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM A LARGE 19000+ ACRE FIRE OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A
STRONG UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTHWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING
SEA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE DELTA REGION
AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MARINE STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALONG THE
COASTLINES TO PLACES LIKE HOMER AND KODIAK.  SOME FOG HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A FAIRLY HIGH SUN ANGLE AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  OUT WEST...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE AK PENINSULA
WESTWARDS AND INCREASING TOWARDS THE DELTA REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS.  THIS
IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND ELONGATING FRONT THAT
IS RUNNING INTO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO
ITS EAST.  NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE DELTA
COASTLINE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 985 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTH IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WHICH FORMS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
AND THOSE SURROUNDING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...LIKELY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO RISE AND TRY TO CAP THE
CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...CALM WINDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MARINE STRATUS TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

WINDS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT
CONTINUES RUNNING INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPEARS
TO MOVE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE DELTA REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHWEST OF BETHEL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ONCE AGAIN TO THE DELTA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AK
PENINSULA AS IT TAKES A TRACK NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE BERING THANKS TO
THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE STATE PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM...BETTER HANDLED BY THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...TAKES A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE AND RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
EXCEPT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE RELIED UPON FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS IT HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LOW IN THE BERING SEA.  THIS SOLUTION KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
ANCHORAGE AOR THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLATTENING
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS A SYSTEM CLIPS THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC JUL 09