Gale Warning 486, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

May 31, 2009, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jun 1, 2009, 6:00 AM AKDT

In force

14 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312307
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 MB LOW 90 NM EAST OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 275 NM SOUTH OF ADAK 
AND WEAKEN TO 997 MB TUE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 1001 MB LOW 250 NM
SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE NEAR ST PAUL TUE. 

$$

PKZ150-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-011400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT EAST OF ATKA. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 31, 1:20 PM AKDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
120 PM AKDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EASTERN DOMAIN WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RIDGING
NUDGING ITSELF TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF THE LARGE LOW COMPLEX JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE TWO SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AKPEN AND
BRISTOL BAY REGIONS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS OVER THE COMING
DAYS...WITH THE GFS THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTION ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ONE TO AFFECT THAT REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY STABLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO OVER THE Y-K
DELTA REGION BETWEEN A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH...AND A
LARGE COMPLEX SET OF LOWS ENCOMPASSING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA TO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN CENTERED NEAR 170W LONGITUDE.
THE NORTHERN LOW IS RAPIDLY PROGRESSING BACK INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS TRANSPORTING COOL AIR AND LOTS
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AKPEN...SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND SOUTHCENTRAL
THIS MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL EAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND...WITH A SET OF LOWS STACKED UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL LOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS NEAR 170W.  SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE PACIFIC SIDE
OF THE AKPEN AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...WITH PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LIGHT RAIN WHICH HAS AFFECTED
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING HAS MOVED MOSTLY INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY ZONE AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NORTH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.  PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE RIDGING HAS ALREADY ASSERTED
ITSELF...THE BIG ISSUE IS THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND SOUTH TO NORTH PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.
THUS...THERE IS A RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM FOR ZONE 141.  AS
RIDGING BUILDS NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE...MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH KODIAK ISLANDS PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST WENDESDAY OFF AND ON
UNTIL THIS STABLE PATTERN REGIME BREAKS DOWN.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ONSHORE FLOW ON THE PACIFIC SIDE
OF THE AKPEN AND FOR THE BRISTOL BAY REGION OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND MOSTLY PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN.  A SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AKPEN LATER TODAY...WITH A MORE
POTENT ONE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE CURRENT STABLE REGIME SHOULD
GENERALLY PERSIST...THOUGH TOWARDS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THERE
IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO EXTEND...AS
WELL AS IF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WITH TIME.  THE
MORE THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO BUILD OR EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...THE
WARMER AND DRIER THE CONDITIONS WILL BE.  SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
AKPEN...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL AND WET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...141.

CC MAY 09

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every gale warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.