Gale Warning 482, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 242302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251400-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 155W AT 993 MB SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO 1000 MB. 

$$

PKZ351-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 24 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

130 
FZAK61 PAFC 250903
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260200-
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 155W AT 989 MB SAT
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY SAT NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO 999
MB. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 252302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261400-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 991 MB LOW AT 54N 156W MOVES NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SAT
EVENING AND INTO BRISTOL BAY EARLY SUN MORNING WHILE WEAKENING TO 
999 MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON
EVENING. 

$$

PKZ351-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 261127
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270200-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-270200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
220 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2009

.ANALYSIS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. THE MOST
OBVIOUS WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE NEW CENTER OF ROTATION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ENHANCED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. A THIRD...AND MOST IMPORTANT FOR
THE FORECAST...IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS WILL HELP DIG THE TROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN BERING
SEA UNDER THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED
WELL NORTH ALONG THE YUKON RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE RESOLVING LARGE SCALE FEATURES WELL AND ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THE TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO
CHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN...LEADING TO MINOR TWEAKS IN THE SHORT
TERM AND TRENDING THE FORECAST IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. ONE DIFFERENCE IS
THE DEVELOPING LOW MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS
FEATURE FURTHER EAST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY EVENING. THE
PREVIOUS LOCATION WAS NEAR CHIGNIK...SO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO THE
EAST. HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS NEW SCENARIO WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE TONIGHT
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE BOWL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE
MOISTURE FROM THE KODIAK LOW ENCROACHES THE COAST AGAIN.

WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A MORE SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
AND TAPPING THE LOWER LATITUDES. THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE CURRENT AND
FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. THE CURRENT ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING GIVES US .69 INCHES OF WATER WITH FORECASTED AMOUNTS NEAR
1.25 INCHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COASTAL
AREAS ALREADY SEEING NEAR .75 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD
REACH NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY. THIS KIND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE FLOODING ISSUES ON THE KENAI RIVER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
KENAI PENINSULA AND FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE KENAI
RIVER NEAR COOPER LANDING.

.WESTERN...
THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE
AND WEAKEN. BY SATURDAY IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND BRING WITH IT SOME MORE RAIN AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE THE CURRENTLY RETROGRADING LOW EXPECT MORE
RAIN TO CONTINUE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY NEXT WORK WEEK IT APPEARS A RIDGE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THE SAME TIME THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN A LOW WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...CREATING AN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 121 125...FLOOD ADVISORY 121
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB/TARALDSEN JUL 09