Gale Warning 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK52 PAFC 142318
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151400-
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE 
NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN TO 991 MB BY TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$

PKZ150-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT W OF KING COVE. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-151400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-151400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-151400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT S OF NUNIVAK 
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING 
SIDE. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING
SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE...BUILDING TO 11 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD
KISKA. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD 
KISKA. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-151400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 151059
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-160200-
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 981 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND WEAKEN TO 991 MB BY TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES 350
NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AT 990 MB AND THEN MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ155-160200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-160200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-160200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-160200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-160200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-160200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-160200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-160200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-160200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON A MUCH DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE HANDLING OF THE LOW WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE AKPEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MORE SPECIFICALLY IN ITS
EVENTUAL TRACK AFTER IT APPROACHES THE AKPEN FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  MODELS NOW MOVE A WEAKER LOW (AT LEAST COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS) INTO THE GULF MIDWEEK AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH IT SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS KEEPS
THE LOW MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH ITS MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERIOR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE.  THIS RIDGE IS
PUSHING A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.  MEANWHILE...A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE NEAR 46N
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ONE OF THE
MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEMS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NEARLY C0-LOCATED UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE JUST WEST OF
THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY RIDGING
NORTH ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.  A 991 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN
THE PACIFIC SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER...WITH A TRIO OF
WEAK SURFACE LOWS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY
LINGERS TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGIONS...AS WELL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...UNDER A
REGION OF WEAK DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND A
BUILDING UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.  AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE...AND
THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD ONLY SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SUSITNA VALLEY ZONES AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AKPEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER KODIAK ISLAND WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AS WELL AS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS CONDITIONS COOL
AND MOIST ACROSS THE DELTA REGION UNTIL MONDAY...WHEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COASTLINE AND SWITCHES THE SURFACE FLOW TO A
WEAK OFFSHORE COMPONENT.  THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN AN INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY ONWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR TUESDAY.
AS THE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AND A STRONG LOW
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN.

AKPEN/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA/BRISTOL BAY...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH ITS OUTER CIRCULATION WILL BE ABLE
TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS
TO A SECOND LOW THAT FORMS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PARENT LOW AND
BEGINS TO MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY BEFORE
BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST AS RIDGING ALOFT TO THE NORTH THAT BUILDS
FROM THE INTERIOR ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA DIVERTS THE SYSTEM
INTO THE GULF.  ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

EUROPEAN/HPC GUIDANCE WAS PREFERRED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD PAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS SOLUTION SHOWS THE LOW IN THE GULF BEING
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AS RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR INCREASES IN SIZE
AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.  THUS...A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

CC JUN 09