Gale Warning 464, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 071118
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080200-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY WILL DISSIPATE NEAR COLD
BAY SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER 997 MB LOW 150 SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE
TO 150 NM SOUTH OF ADAK AT 997 MB MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-080200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-080200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-080200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-080200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-080200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-080200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-080200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-080200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-080200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE BERING
AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND EASTERN ALASKA REMAIN IN PLACE. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THIS MORNING PRODUCING RAIN ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SHOWERS
INLAND. AREAS OF STRATUS AND STRATO-CU SETTLED IN OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT AND IS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN
COOK INLET AND THE MAT-SU. THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING SHOWS A STEEP
INVERSION FROM 830 MB TO 780 MB...WHICH IS PREVENT VERTICAL MIXING
NEEDED TO HELP DISSIPATE THE CLOUDS. THE SUN WILL HELP ERODE THE
CLOUDS FROM THE EDGES...BUT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE TO GET RID
OF ALL THE CLOUDS. A SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS HAS
SET UP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH IS NOW RESULTING
IN FORMATION OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH
IN TURN PROVIDES A POSITIVE FEEDBACK OF TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRONGER WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THESE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT
OR PREVENT SEA BREEZE FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE WEATHER OUT WEST REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH A SERIES OF LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA TROUGH. AS ONE
LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN BERING ANOTHER IS DROPPING INTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A
SHORT-WAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH IS PUSHING A SURFACE
LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE WITH THE
DETAILS OF LOW POSITIONS AND TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE ALL GROUPED
IN A FAIRLY SMALL AREA. THERE IS ALSO GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL CLIP THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HEADING TI
INTERIOR ALASKA. THIS WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF TALKEETNA.
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND SHIFTING OF FLOW TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST WILL HELP BREAK UP THE CLOUDS SITTING OVER ANCHORAGE
AND MAT-SU REGION. SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP BY
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD
SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER INTERIOR ALASKA
AND SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES MORE WELL DEFINED ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THE NORTH TO EAST SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION AND HELP TO FIGHT OFF SEA BREEZES...SO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE QUASI-PERMANENT ALEUTIAN LOW
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY BRINGING A FEW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...BUT IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD BACK IN BY LATE TUESDAY. SO ITS LOOKING LIKE A GENERALLY
DRY AND WARM WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SHORT-WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
EXIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF BRISTOL
BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR...PRODUCE
DRY OFFSHORE FLOW...AND HELP CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AS
THE PROGRESSION OF TROUGH/RIDGES CONTINUES...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
BACK IN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE PACIFIC SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA HAS DECENT JET SUPPORT AND IS
TAPPING INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS TO BE A
SOAKER. IT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE JET SUPPORT MOVING
OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY LARGE COMPLEX LOW AS IT SETTLES
INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH MONDAY. DETAILS OF PARTICULAR LOWS
IS HARD TO PINPOINT...BUT WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS AND RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND NORTHWARD TO
MAINLAND ALASKA. SO LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME...WITH GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TRANSITIONING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TO CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 09