Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2009

Gale Warning 433, NWS Anchorage, AK

May 14, 2009

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at May 14, 2009, 4:00 AM AKDT. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2009, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2009, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 141200
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150200-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING BY FRI EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT W OF 175E. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT W OF 177W IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT...INCREASING TO 25 KT W OF 177W IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$
5 follow-up statements
661 
FZAK62 PAFC 142211
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151400-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 41N 163E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 994 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 57N 169E FRI AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA SAT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST BERING WILL 
TRACK TO THE EASTERN BERING LATE SAT.
$$

PKZ411-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK62 PAFC 151157
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160200-
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 170E THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OVER
EASTERN RUSSIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BERING WILL TRACK TO THE EASTERN BERING LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ411-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$
215 
FZAK62 PAFC 152147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161400-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
TO THE EASTERN BERING SUN.
$$

PKZ411-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK62 PAFC 160700 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1100 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

UPDATED ZONES 411 AND 412.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161400-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
TO THE EASTERN BERING SUN.
$$

PKZ411-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
1100 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
1100 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$
000 
FZAK62 PAFC 161157
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170200-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN BERING SUNDAY AND STALL OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON MONDAY.
$$

PKZ411-170200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-170200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-170200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2009

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at May 13, 2:00 PM AKDT, 14 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 13, 2:00 PM AKDT, 14 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE FORECAST PROCESS TODAY IS THE PROGRESSION OF
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE FAR WEST PACIFIC
AND ITS TIMING IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA RIDGE
PAST FRIDAY.  GENERALLY...PREFERRED TO STICK MORE WITH THE EXISTING
SLOWER MOVEMENT EASTWARD RATHER THAN LEAN TOWARDS THE NEW GFS WHICH
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE QUICKLY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES HIGH ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND THE ALEUTIANS WHERE EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA.  A SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE ALASKA RANGE FROM OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...BUT ITS ONLY
EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER THUS FAR ARE TO PRODUCE SOME THIN WISPY
CIRRUS.

AT THE SURFACE...MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA IS ENJOYING ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW STRATUS IS HANGING TIGHT JUST OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHERN GULF...EXCEPT AT KODIAK WHERE FOG AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY.  NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE PERSISTS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY AND DELTA REGION
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN TIP OF THE SIBERIAN PENINSULA. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FAIR SKIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE...BRISTOL
BAY...AND THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...WITH A WEAK WEATHER FRONT DRAPED
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BETWEEN A 999 MB NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC LOW AND A 988 MB LOW NORTHEAST
OF JAPAN IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN.  THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS DOMINATES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE SECOND OF THESE WHICH MOVES ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE CHUGACH AND WRANGELL-ST.ELIAS MOUNTAINS.  THE THIRD
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO TRY TO PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL BRING INCREASED POPS TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREAS PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH MOSTLY
OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING SKIES FAIR ALONG AND NEAR BRISTOL BAY OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS FIGURING OUT THE PROGRESS OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR SLOWER PROGRESS EASTWARD OF THE FRONT THAN THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE GFS...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GALE FORCE PICKING UP IN
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN ENTERING THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LAST NIGHTS GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY
TOOL SHOWS LITTLE PREDICTABILITY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AND THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE POOR HANDLING OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IN THE BERING SEA BY THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR.
HOWEVER...THERE IS HIGH PREDICTABILITY THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN BERING SEA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THE FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA OR ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE SOMETIME MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW/TROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING...155.
MARINE...GALE...176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC MAY 09

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 13, 4:00 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
May 14, 4:00 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
May 14, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC5 days

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every gale warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.