Gale Warning 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291432 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
630 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

UPDATED ZONES 120 125 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300200-
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THU NIGHT. A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTHWEST  OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-300200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
630 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE.  
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT. 
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG 
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG 
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE.  
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-300200-
PASSAGE CANAL
630 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-300200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

674 
FZAK51 PAFC 292249
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301400-
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-301400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ125-301400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-301400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ141-301400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
125 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 140W
IS BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND THE YUKON. THE BOTTOM
OF THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BE PINCHED WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD
TO FORMATION OF A CUT-OFF HIGH. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG ARE MOVING
AROUND THE GULF WHILE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL IS ENJOYING A CLEAR AND
DRY DAY. LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BERING WITH MULTIPLE
SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. A 165 KT ZONAL JET EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 40N THEN TURNS NORTHWARD AROUND
155W...TRANSPORTING LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
IS FALLING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH LIGHTER RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. A MODERATE LOW NEAR THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
SITTING RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WITH LITTLE
STEERING FLOW...AND IS MAKING VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES
AFFECTING ALASKA WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
PARTICULAR MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA/EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO THE BERING SEA. WILL MODIFY FORECAST
TO FULLY REFLECT THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
IS FORECASTING THE MOVEMENT OF THE MARINE STRATUS. WITH FULL SUN
OVER LAND EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL
HELP BRING SOME OF THE STRATUS ONSHORE. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE OVER LAND TONIGHT...SO ANY STRATUS THAT DOES MOVE ONSHORE
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR AND WILL MOVE BACK OFFSHORE QUICKLY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP SHOP RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT
DOWN OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD
A BIT. THUS...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM INTO SOUTH TO WEST ANCHORAGE...THROUGH THE KNIK RIVER
VALLEY INTO PALMER...AND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER. THIS WILL SHIFT
THE FOCUS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL MEET RED FLAG THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON
FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS. THURSDAY ALSO HAS POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A LITTLE
MORE EACH DAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE BACK EAST A
LITTLE BIT TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN FARTHER INLAND. A SURFACE WAVE
DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE WEST OF COLD BAY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT HEADS NORTHWEST...PULLING THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WESTWARD AGAIN. ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA RECEIVING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AS THE
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY REMAINS AIMED RIGHT AT THAT AREA. THE RIDGE
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BUILD WESTWARD FRIDAY HELPING TO DRY
OUT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL HOLD ON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA A BIT LONGER.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
UNTIL AN UPPER CLOSED LOW FORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND PULLS IT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS THE ALASKA RIDGE DEVELOPS
A CLOSED CENTER ENERGY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MOVES EASTWARD BENEATH
IT (DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC). SO...THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL
ELONGATE TO THE EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA AND INTO THE BERING SEA.
THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BERING REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN AT WEEK'S
END.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT ALASKA
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT ELONGATES EAST-WEST. EVEN
WITH THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS ALASKA AND
THE BERING SEA. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE PATTERN CHANGE
WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS OR IN PLACE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160 165 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 09