Gale Warning 423, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 251158
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260200-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL
AT 1005 MB EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A 980 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 530 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH WIND 15 KT BECOMING S WIND 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-260200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-260200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-260200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-260200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...6 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT PACIFIC SIDE...11 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BUILDING TO 15
FT BERING SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS TOWARDS ATTU ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-260200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-260200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT FRI APR 24 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC...WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A
974 MB LOW IS NEAR SHEMYA...MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN
BERING THROUGH THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR SHEMYA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN SATISFACTORY AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. DIFFERENCES
ARISE AFTER THIS TIME IN HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING
SEA...AND ITS SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS ONCE AGAIN USED TO CONSTRUCT THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...DUE TO GOOD INITIALIZATION AND CONTINUED
CONSISTENCY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARM
AIR WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY RAIN...ALTHOUGH A RAIN
SNOW MIX WILL BE SEEN FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW AROUND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST...
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WARM
AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MAINLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SEE MORE SNOW
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW AROUND AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
NEAR SHEMYA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW...COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN SOME OF THE SHOWERS BACK TO
SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT UPPER RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATING UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS...WITH QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER SOME OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...KEEPING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HIGH THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...150 155 165 170 172 175 176 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09