Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051230
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK 1000 MB LOW WILL FORM 100 NM SOUTH OF
CAPE SUCKLING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT NEAR SEWARD...N WIND 35 KT TOWARD PILOT ROCK.
TOWARD. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NORTH WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 5 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SUN JAN 4 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD CORE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...WHILE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA THE LAST WEEK OR SO CONTINUES TO BE PINCHED OFF BY
THE LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND A SECOND LOW SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA...A SIGN THAT A PATTERN CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A 966 MB LOW IS MAKING A QUICK EXIT FROM THE GULF
AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKER LOW IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR SPINNING IN THE NORTHERN GULF JUST EAST OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HELPS MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72
HOURS. THE DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH A DEVELOPING NPAC LOW MIDWEEK. THE
ECMWF HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE
NORTHEAST TOWARD KODIAK...SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS TOO MUCH COLD AIR IN
PLACE TO THINK THAT THIS FIRST LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
BERING. THIS FIRST LOW WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND ALSO BRING BACK THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE COLD UPPER LOW AND
ITS PROGRESSION TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST...COLD AIR WILL BE FORCED SOUTH ACROSS THE
CHUGACH RANGE THROUGH THE CHANNELED TERRAIN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
CONCERNING THROUGH THOMPSON PASS WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING
ABOVE 60 MPH AND WIND CHILLS HAVE BEEN NEAR -50. ADDING MORE
COLD AIR AND INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL ONLY MEAN STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER WIND CHILLS...RESULTING IN A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THOMPSON PASS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA BEGINNING A LITTLE LATER ONCE THE GRADIENT BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE FOR THAT REGION.

ELSEWHERE...THE STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE COLD AIRMASS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN
ANCHORAGE WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST...BITTER COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 BELOW ALONG THE COAST TO 50
BELOW IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SHALLOW DENSE FOG IS RESTRICTING
VISIBILITY IN THE VALLEYS WHERE THE STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS
TRAPPING THE MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE BRISTOL BAY ZONES BUT
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ADVISORIES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIE DOWN ENOUGH.

THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE EXTREME COLD AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THIS FIRST LOW TO PENETRATE THE DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS. IT
MAY BE THE SECOND OR THIRD LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA
BEFORE THE WARMER INFLUENCES MOVE UP THE VALLEYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 131
         HIGH WIND WARNING 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...175 176.
         GALE WARNING...121 129 130 132 138 150 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 125 129 130 132 138
            140 141 150 160 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 09