Gale Warning 418, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 220107 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
510 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

UPDATED ZONE 170, 171, 180.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB LOW 350 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 375 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL THU AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. A 981 MB LOW MOVES TO 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEATHER FRONT MOVES
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TONIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-221400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-221400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-221400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-221400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
510 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
510 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-221400-
UNALASKA BAY
510 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...7 FT BERING SIDE.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-221400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-221400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-221400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT TUE APR 21 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BIG DISAGREEMENTS OCCUR WHEN THE PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL...THE RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND RIGHT NOW TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MAINLAND. THIS PROGRESSION WILL PUSH THE GULF LOW INTO CANADA AND THE
BERING LOW NORTH AND DISSIPATING TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE BERING
STRAIT BY FRIDAY. AN STRONG SHORT WAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE MAINLAND
THURSDAY AND LEAVE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY
WITH THE RIDGE RE-AMPLIFYING OVER THE MAINLAND AND GULF.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH SHOWERS. THE BERING LOW TO
SWING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING CONTINUED MOISTURE AND A
STRONG JET AND VORT MAX TO THE AREA SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAINLAND WITH THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONCE AGAIN...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
BRISTOL BAY TOMORROW. NOW...NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE IT DEVELOPING. I
STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A LOW THERE AT SOME POINT. IT SHOULD DEEPEN
SOME AS IT REACHES THE COLDER AIR IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST HAS DOWNPLAYED THE INTENSITY OF THIS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS IS
SLIDING EAST. A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 110 KT JET. THIS IS BRINGING SOME VERY STRONG
GUSTINESS TO DUTCH HARBOR CURRENTLY. THE GULF LOW HAS MOVED TO THE
PANHANDLE WITH A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. COMBINED WITH
A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA...STRONG GAP WINDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT.
THE FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF PRESERVING GAP WINDS DUE TO A MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
LESSEN THE GRADIENT AND GAP WINDS. HIGHER CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOMORROW
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST OF ANCHORAGE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
AROUND THE BERING LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO KODIAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL SWING TO THE SUSITNA TOMORROW NIGHT.
A STRONGER WAVE TO PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE AKPEN TODAY. VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE
ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN CAPES THIS EVENING AND SPREAD
FURTHER INLAND TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BERING
LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST CLOSER TO THE LOW AND BEHIND IT.
MAY WANT TO GO WITH A BLIZZARD WARNING RIGHT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
COAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CHANGE
OVER THAT QUICKLY. FURTHER INLAND...CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGHER CLOUDS TOMORROW AND SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO REMAIN OVER HE
MAINLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG DAY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY FOR
MOST OF THE MAINLAND. THE MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE
GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS TO REMAIN WITH THE PARENT LOW IN THE
BERING AND BEHIND IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 172 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JN APR 09