Gale Warning 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 201147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210200-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

THE EASTERN BERING SEA RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TUESDAY. A 989 MB LOW 400 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKENS. A DEVELOPING 1001 MB LOW 110 NM WEST OF ADAK MONDAY MORNING
MOVES TO 250 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 987 MB TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ165-210200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W OF UNALASKA
ISLAND. SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT PACIFIC SIDE...10 FT BERING SIDE.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 17 FT
PACIFIC SIDE...12 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT S 45 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 16 FT PACIFIC SIDE...11 FT BERING SIDE.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-210200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
230 PM AKDT SUN APR 19 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE GOOD AND FORECAST OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE REASSONABLE AND IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
WED. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF SW FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL. AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE
BASED ON A BLEND THE THE NAM AND GFS IN THE EAST AND SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE GFS IN THE WEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
500 MB...THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF MOVES EAST INTO CANADA AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE MAINLAND TUE
NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TO OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL GULF AND
WESTERN CANADA THU AFTERNOON AND SETS UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
MAINLAND. FURTHER WEST...THE LOW NEAR KAMCHATKA MOVES INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL BERING SEA THU AND INTENSIFIES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.EAST...SHORT WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WEST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
AND MAINLAND TUE.  A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL LIKELY OVER ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WED AS HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES HOLD. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER BASIN MON AND TUE AS A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH SETS OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ON THU AS
FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES.

.WEST...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF WEAKENING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND GREATLY REDUCED RADAR
RETURNS. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH PRODUCED FOG OVER
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
BUILDING RIDGE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT...AS WILL AS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. LOW CENTER
NEAR KAMCHATKA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST. FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF THE
DATELINE EARLY MON. A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MON AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WHICH SLOWS SOME MON WITH DEVELOPING
LOW...MOVES TO THE AK PEN AND AND DELTA/WESTERN BRISTOL BAY BY EARLY
WED MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY GALES WITH AND IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW. FRONT WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES INLAND WED AND THU. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND SW ALASKA THU WITH CENTRAL NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY STARTING TODAY FOR
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BY MIDWEEK IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO THE BERING AND
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. IN GENERAL...AN UNSEASONABLY CLEAR AND WARM
START TO THE WEEK WILL DETERIORATE TO COOLER AND MUCH WETTER
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...170 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC APR 09