Gale Warning 394, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 101839 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...UPDATED
1040 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

UPDATED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110200-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH
AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 985 MB AND MOVE TO 165 NM
EAST OF KODIAK ON SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY MORNING IT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 993 MB.
$$

PKZ120-110200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1040 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF NAKED ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING E 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-110200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
600 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 102337
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 125 NM EAST OF
KODIAK CITY AT 988 MB SAT AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1005 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-111400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-111400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 10 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU APR 9 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM GFS WAS USED.  THERE WERE A FEW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM IN THE WAY THEY HANDLED THE LOW THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.  NAM HAD THE
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...BUT GFS WAS PREFERRED DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY
AND EXCELLENT INITIALIZATION. AFTER 60 HOURS MODELS BEGAN TO DIVERGE
ON THEIR SOLUTIONS.  GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PLACE A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE INDIVIDUAL LOW
CENTERS VARIED DRAMATICALLY.  THE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT WAS TO GO
WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND WAS MORE OF A
BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STATIONED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND...VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF COLD
BAY.  IN SPITE OF THE FACT THAT IT IS VERTICALLY STACKED THIS SURFACE
LOW WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
THANKS TO THE COLD AIR POURING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING IS NOT EXTRAORDINARILY
STRONG IT WILL ENHANCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE BERING FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUNDAY THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO TAPER OFF AND
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL IN THE GULF OF AK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
IN THE EAST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS CAUSING A RAIN SHADOW OVER THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MOST OF THE WESTERN KENAI THIS MORNING.  ON THE
EASTERN KENAI TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH TO BRING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO PORTAGE AND WHITTIER.  THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM UP BEFORE THE WINDS TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING. AS
THE LOW FILLS IN THE GULF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SLOWLY FILLS.  ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW BUT THE BLOWING SNOW
WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PRIBILOFS AND THE AK PEN TODAY BUT WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETS IN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BERING WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE RIDGE THAT SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BECOME A CUT OFF HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP
ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND PRETTY FAR
SOUTH IN THE GULF OF AK AS WELL.  SUNNY CONDITIONS BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OUT WEST...WITH MORE SHOWERS MOVING IN
FOR THE EAST AS A NEW LOW MOVES UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125
MARINE...GALE 120 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF APR 09