Gale Warning 368, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 282311
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174E REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVES TO 49N 174W THU AFTERNOON. A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 48N 
157W MOVES TO 55N 166W WED MORNING AND DISSIPATES WED AFTERNOON. A
987 MB LOW FORMS THU MORNING NEAR 52N 168W.

$$

PKZ411-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.

.WED...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 28 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
150 PM AKDT MON APR 27 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 140W
EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND INTO THE YUKON. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WEST PACIFIC. UPPER JET HEADS NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC (REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS) AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A NEARLY
STATIONARY TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A LONG FETCH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA...RESULTING IN
A NARROW BAND OF RAIN WHICH IS TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD....BUT
WHICH WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR EAST.
A MODERATE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN TROUGH IS TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE RIDGE AND WITH
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW. DISAGREEMENT LIES IN BETWEEN WHERE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS FORCED
NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE. ALL MODELS INDICATE
A LOW MOVING UP THE STATIONARY FRONT...BUT TIMING TRACK AND STRENGTH
VARIES AMONG THE MODELS. WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAS A
POSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
INDICATE STRONGER WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP EAST OF THIS
LOW...BUT WONT GO NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE GFS WHICH HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHCENTRAL.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH AND WEST AND FLOW BACKS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE EAST.
THIS WILL MOVE THE CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE
MARINE STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE GULF AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY REACH
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME CUT-OFF BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AS IT BECOMES RE-CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON.
THIS WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC FRONT TO APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
AND PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP ALL OF THE RAIN WITH THE FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAT HAS
BEEN PUSHING EASTWARD THIS MORNING WILL HEAD BACK WESTWARD TONIGHT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT TOWARD SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MEANWHILE...WEAK
WAVES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC AND HELP TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST BY TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER THE YUKON WEDNESDAY FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD
THE EAST AND PUSH THE FRONT OUT INTO THE EASTERN BERING SO THAT
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
BUILDS EVEN FARTHER WEST. THE PACIFIC FIRE HOSE WILL REMAIN AIMED
AT THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO
STEADY RAIN WILL PERSIST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW WILL STALL AS IT
REACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS
LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK AS ENERGY
TO THE EAST ROTATES WESTWARD OVER TOP OF IT. THUS...GENERALLY WET
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ALEUTIAN LOW COMPLEX WILL MOVE DOWN
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE BERING. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND A DRYING TREND ACROSS
THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 160 172 175 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 09