Gale Warning 356, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 141144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-150200-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR 52N 167W WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. 

$$

PKZ411-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 22 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-150200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW 
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 142356
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151400-
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
STRONG NORTHERLIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL 
BERING AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH WED AS THE LOW COMPLEX MOVES 
AWAY FROM THE AREA.
$$

PKZ411-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56 N. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ412-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE APR 14 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 151108
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160200-
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THU
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-160200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED APR 15 2009

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
205 PM AKDT MON APR 13 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE COMPLEX
CUT-OFF LOW IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN IN A
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. THERE IS A DECENT JET STREAK ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS LOW. THIS JET COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE AIDING IN TRIPLE
POINT DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE THE ORIGINAL
LOW WEAKENS BACK NEAR ADAK. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THIS LOW COMPLEX AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING.
COLD AIR IS ALSO ADVECTING OFF OF THE ICE EDGE AND CONTRIBUTING TO
THE MAX GALE TO MIN STORM FORCE WINDS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING.

A SMALLER BUT SLIGHTLY COLDER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE GULF
AHEAD OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW. 12Z SOUNDING FROM BETHEL SHOWS THE EXTENT
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS LOW...WITH AN 850H TEMP OF -23 DEGREES
AND 500H TEMP OF -37 DEGREES. AS SOME OF THIS COLDER AIR MOVED OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING INSTABILITY PRODUCED SOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA. SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH IS SWINGING
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF SURFACE
LOW CENTERS...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A COMPLEX UPPER LOW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL EXIT TO
THE NORTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERUNNING AHEAD OF THE ALEUTIAN STORM
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING FROM
KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON TO THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILD OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONG TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SOME
OTHER TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY AND THE
COPPER RIVER. DOWNSLOPING USUALLY WORKS AGAINST THE OVERUNNING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH DOWNSLOPE DRYING...BUT THIS IS A MARGINAL
WIND EVENT AND STILL EXPECT FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN LEE SIDE AREAS.

AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF TOMORROW MORNING EAST WINDS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY INTO EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ENSURE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL SNOW...AND THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE GULF LATE TUESDAY...SO THERE WONT BE MUCH OF A WARM-UP OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THEREFORE...A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY HERE IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY
ENOUGH AND STEADY ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND
FREEZING TO ALLOW SNOW TO EFFECTIVELY BLOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

AFTER THE INITIAL OVERUNNING PRECIPITATION MOST OF INLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS DOWN OVER THE GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC. THIS LOW
COMPLEX LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO INTERIOR ALASKA
TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VICINITY
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MCGRATH AND
BETHEL. GUSTY NORTHERLIES WILL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AS WINTER CONTINUES TO HANG
ON. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF/NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
NIGHT SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL DRY OUT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BECOME DOMINANT THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER
LOW COMPLEX CONTINUES EASTWARD YET ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS LOW WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC ON
TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SLID GALE FORCE WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING MID WEEK...SETTING
UP A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND MEANS DRY OFF-SHORE FLOW FOR THE MAINLAND AS A
WEAK LOW RESIDES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SNOW MELT SEASON CONTINUES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 125.
MARINE...GALE...120 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 09