Gale Warning 312, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH OUT WEST AND IN THE
GULF.  THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY
SEEMED TO HAVE RESOLVED ITSELF WITH THE NAM GFS AND EC COMING UP WITH
THE SAME GENERAL SOLUTION THROUGH MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE CENTERED OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE STATE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST BUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE EASTERN BERING AND DRIFT EAST FORMING A DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE PACIFIC BY WEDNESDAY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENRAL...COLD DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHCENTERAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY GAP WIND WILL THROUGH
VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE
LOW WE COULD SEE A CHANCE OF OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO STAY COLD AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LATE TONIGHT IT MAY ALSO BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE PRESENT SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187. BLIZZARD WATCH 185
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 132 138 150 155 165 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09