Gale Warning 309, NWS Anchorage, AK

929 
FZAK51 PAFC 202252
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211400-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 150 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA SATURDAY EVENING
AND MOVE TO 50 NM EAST OF KODIAK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A
985 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-211400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. E OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-211400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR SITKINAK AND NE OF
KODIAK CITY. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR SITKINAK 
AND NE OF KODIAK CITY. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STUBBORN BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST SIBERIA (REX CONFIGURATION)
WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ALONG 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE
AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA. COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTER ALEUTIANS TO NEARLY THE
CANADIAN BORDER. LOW UNDERCUTTING THE SIBERIAN BLOCK CREATING WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SIBERIAN BLOCK WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
TAKE ON MORE OF AN OMEGA LOOK AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS CONNECTS WITH THE GULF LOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY SOUTH OF MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL FOLLOW THE RETROGRATION OF THE
SIBERIAN BLOCK AND ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA
FROM THE EAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ENTIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...
THE DETAILS IN HOW THE LOW ORIENTS ITSELF AND TIMING OF SHORT WAVE
FEATURES ARE NOT SO WELL DECIDED UPON. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH POSITION WILL BE ROUGHLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE STATE AND MOST OF THE BERING
SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175 176.
         GALE WARNING 170 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 138 150 155 165 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 09