Gale Warning 292, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 11 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FOR A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE FRONT IN THE BERING SEA WILL
HAVE A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOP ALONG IT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS BUT THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SAME
OVERALL PICTURE. THE DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FLOPPING AROUND AS TO WHERE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THE LOW WOULD
MOVE. SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO EAST
OF YAKUTAT. THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS STILL SHOW UNCERTAINTY THE
SCENARIO WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE MAIN LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE ON
SHORE SOMEWHERE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF YAKUTAT WHILE A SECONDARY
LOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN CAPE HINCHINBROOK AND MIDDLETON ISLAND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE
ZONAL ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE SUCH UNTIL A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DESCENDS OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA CAN BE SEEN ON THE
SATELLITE LOOP.

THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLY JET OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS
STRENGTHENING. WIND SPEEDS AT 250 MB SHOULD REACH 185 KT OVERNIGHT IN
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND REMAIN AT LEAST 140 KT OVER THE ENTIRE
ALEUTIAN AREA UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE JET
BUT IT IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AREAS.
SNOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN RANGE AND WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS A RIDGE IN THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION.
THE FRONT IN THE BERING SEA WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT AND SNOW INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE MAINLAND
PART OF THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
BERING SEA INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE. THE RESULT WILL BE COLDER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH TERRAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 09