Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM AKST SAT MAR 7 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS SEEMS TO KNOW WHATS ITS DOING FOR THE NEXT 4 OR 5
DAYS. THE SLOWER NAM AND EURO MDLS LOOK BETTER WITH WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT
AS IT CROSSES KODIAK AND ENTERS THE GULF LATE SUN AND MON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE 11TH CONSECUTIVE STORM HAS NOW MOVED INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING WITH ITS GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC. THE MODELS
STILL SUGGEST SOME CHANGES TAKING PLACE IN THE PATTERN. INSTEAD OF DRIVING
NORTHWARD AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THE CURRENT BERING SEA STORM MOVES TO
61N 180 AND STALLS. THE INTERIER HIGH SLIDES INTO THE YUKON AND ALLOWS A
BROARD SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE MAINLAND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE BUT WILL BE MUCH SLACKER BY
THAT TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WINDS AND PRECIP WILL CONT TO INCREASE ALONG THE
BERING COAST THIS EVENING WITH BLIZZARD CONDS RESTRICTED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BETHEL MAY SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN TO CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WESTERN ALEUTIAN BLIZZARD COULD END AT ANY TIME AND LIKLEY WONT LAST TOO LONG
INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH. AT 1 PM DUTA2
HAD A GUST TO 75 MPH. WINDS OUT IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WILL PEAK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NEXT FRONT MOVES TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING
WEDNESDAY BUT THE LOW CENTER HANGS BACK NEAR THE KOMADORSKIS. DOWNSTREAM A
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND A WEAK LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155 THIS EVENING. HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 185
ENDING THIS EVENING.

MARINE...GALE AREAS 150 155 160 165 180 170 172 175 176 179 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

D PERCY MAR 09