Gale Warning 163, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE GULF AS A RESIDUAL LOW FORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES ALONG THE STATIONARY WEATHER
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING
SEA CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE YUKON DELTA. A COLD FRONT OVER
KUSKOKWIM DELTA, BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALSO MOVE
EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPING OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE EAST AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY THEN
DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG
BERING SEA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR YAKUTAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BERING SEA LOW WEST OF THE YUKON DELTA WILL EAST TO NEAR
SAINT MARYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY, EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING THEN
WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA OF GUST NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL MOVE INTO KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST,
BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN DIMINISH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO WESTERN ALASKA
SUNDAY. A NEW STORM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF ATTU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST BERING SATURDAY AND INTO THE
THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN BERING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF MONDAY THEN TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE OLD LOW WEST OF ATTU WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
MARINE...STORM 175, 176
         GALE 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 171, 172,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 09