Gale Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050126 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

CORRECTED 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE
THU MORNING. A 1009 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 989 MB NEAR 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 051218
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-060300-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 50 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. 
A 993 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND 
MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. A 994 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH
OF CHIGNIK LATE THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK BY
FRI AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 982 MB. THIS LOW WILL FURTHER DEEPEN TO
973 MB BY LATE FRI NIGHT 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE SUCKLING. 
$$

PKZ120-060300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-060300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-060300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-060300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-060300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-060300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-060300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-060300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-060300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2009

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED FEB 4 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL MODELS AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. NOT THE SAME STORY FOR DAY
FOUR THROUGH DAY EIGHT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS. MORE ON THIS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
FLOW HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL THAN IT HAS BEEN IN A WHILE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA. AN ELONGATED LINE OF LOWS STRETCHES FROM JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ANADYR GULF
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES PORTION
OF CANADA. SYSTEMS OF NOTE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND TO BETHEL WITH
A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW...A DEEP MATURE LOW OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL BERING SEA...AND A DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
CONFINED MOSTLY TO COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIMITED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND.
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH THE BERING LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW HAS A NICE BATCH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND WILL
RE-INVIGORATE THE BERING LOW. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH STRONGER PUSH
OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ON
THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REALLY OPENS UP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH POSITION WILL MOVE OVER ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PLENTY OF SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A POTENT SYSTEM RACING IN
FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING EFFECTS ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE 00Z NUMERICAL MODELS
PART COMPANY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER WEST IN HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND KEEPS IT OVER THE AREA MUCH LONGER THAN THE
GFS...WHICH PREFERS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WAS SLIGHTLY PREFERRED IN THE MORNING PACKAGE. AND INDEED THE 06Z
GFS IS NOW LEANING MORE TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR
A COUPLE OF RUNS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 175.
         GALE WARNING 130 155 160 165 170 171 172 176 179 185.
         HVY FRZ SPRY WRNG 121 125 130 140 141.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG FEB 09