Gale Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST FRI JAN 30 2009

CORRECTED TYPOS AND WATCH/WARNING TABLE

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. AS ALWAYS, MODEL
SOLUTIONS TEND TO DIVERGE AS WE PROGRESS FORWARD IN TIME, BUT THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE NEW SET OF MODELS ARE NOT VERY LARGE. NAM AND GFS
HAD SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS IN THE GULF BY STARTING THE MAIN LOW
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVED ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND
WEAKENED OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS STARTING TO TURN EAST TOWARD THE KENAI
PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
MONTAGUE ISLAND. A COLD FRONT OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR YAKUTAT SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY LOW NEAR MONTAGUE ISLAND WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK
INLET WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
THE CENTRAL COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF SUNDAY. A MODERATE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF SUNDAY. A STORM DEVELOPING NEAR JAPAN WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUNDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY,
ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW AND FOG
WILL PERSIST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MORE
SNOW WILL MOVE BACK ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND, COOK INLET AND ALONG THE
NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS A BIT OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. COLD
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO LITTLE TO
NO SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST SUNDAY.

BERING SEA...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
MOVING TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE INTENSE STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WEAKEN 10 TO 15 MB. ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND WILL STRETCH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY. RAIN, SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND DIMINISH BEHIND IT.

THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE INLAND WEST OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY MONDAY. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 121.
MARINE...STORM 130.
         GALE 120 132 138 140 141 150 155 170 172 175 351 352.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 165
                              179 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09