Gale Warning 1012, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 31, 2009, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)

Expired

Dec 31, 2009, 6:00 PM AKST

In force

14 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 311253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-010300-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A STATIONARY 985 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO A 982 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT WEST TO 400 NM WEST OF SHEMYA BY LATE FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-010300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-010300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-010300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-010300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-010300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-010300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRI...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-010300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-010300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-010300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2009

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 30, 10:10 PM AKST, 5 hours 50 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BUT ARE REALLY STRUGGLING ONCE THEY GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
QUESTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE EAST REVOLVE AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP BUT ITS ACTUAL POSITION AND STRENGTH ARE IN QUESTION.
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE WEST IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT IT
IS A BIT OF A MESS FOR THE MODELS. THIS COMPLEX LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA SO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM IT WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE
ALEUTIAN ISLAND AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE STATE
TODAY THOUGH IT WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE BERING SEA BY FRIDAY AS A
COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE YUKON INCREASING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE WITH JUST
A FEW LOWS IN THE ALEUTIAN AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPLEX LOW
SOUTH OF THERE.
THE JET STREAM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN THERE AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOME AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS WILL WORK IN AND
OUT OF THE COOK INLET REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STRATUS WITH NOTHING TO CLEAR
IT OUT.
THE SLOW PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE RETROGRESSION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA AND VALDEZ AREA WILL BE THE PLACES TO WATCH TO SEE HOW MUCH THE
WINDS INCREASE WITH THIS COLD AIR AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COLD AND DRY AIR WILL SETTLE IN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST ALASKA DRY OUT BY THE
WEEKEND AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO BASICALLY SOUTH OF A
LINE RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND TO CAPE NEWENHAM.
THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ABOUT MONDAY THE FORECASTS TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS
THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO WORK OUT A COMMON
SOLUTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 09

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2009Every gale warning in 2009

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.