Gale Warning 1010, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 300006
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301500-
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WED MORNING. A 983 MB LOW 575 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 445 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WED NIGHT AT 
972 MB AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON THU.

$$

PKZ150-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-301500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-301500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-301500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-301500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-301500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-301500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.       
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1215 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS ALASKA AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS DIGS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CUT-OFF HIGH
OVER ALASKA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET CONTINUES TO PUMP WARM AIR
ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR
FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST OF BETHEL WHERE A SHALLOW NEAR
SURFACE LAYER REMAINS BELOW FREEZING. THE POPULATION CENTERS
OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ARE EXPERIENCING STRONG
DOWNSLOPE DRYING...SO CEILINGS ARE HIGH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE
A BIT IF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SOUTHEASTERLY JET AND RIDING
TO THE NORTH ARE STEERING THE STORM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BU THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK OF
DISSIPATING LOW NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING AS WELL AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND 12Z EC SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION...SO WILL STICK
WITH THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AND WIND IN KODIAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT AS THE FRONT FALLS APART.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY STEEP SURFACE-BASED
INVERSIONS IN PLACE. CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND WILL
LIMIT FOG FORMATION INITIALLY...BUT THEY WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME
AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE EXPECT
PERSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND AREAS OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY WARMING TO FREEZING OR ABOVE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST WHERE PRECIP IS FALLING...ALTHOUGH THE REGION NORTH OF TOKSOOK
BAY UP TO HOOPER BAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
HOVER AROUND THIS MARK THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR FREEZING
RAIN WILL PERSIST AND WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STORM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NORTWESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS IN ITS
WAKE. MEANWHILE...A STORM OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
TRACK DUE EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING OUT AHEAD OF IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PREVENT THIS SYSTEM
FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEYOND THAT POINT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DONT LINE UP PERFECTLY...THEY NOW BOTH DEPICT THE SAME
GENERAL LONG-WAVE EVOLUTION...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SETTING
UP SHOP OVER THE BERING AFTER THAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT-WAVE
TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND USHER ARCTIC
AIR SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IT DOES LOOK LIKE
THE COLDEST AIR WILL MOVE INTO CANADA...BUT EVEN WITH THIS THE
AIRMASS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA LOOKS COLD ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THIS COMES THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A NORTHERLY WIND EVENT AS THE AIR SINKS OFF THE COASTAL RANGE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO...IN SUMMARY...THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE THIS WEEK WITH
STRONG NORTHERLIES DEVELOPING IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS.

OUT WEST...THE RIDGE WILL CONFINE MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO TRACK OUT OF ASIA AND ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 138 150 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 09