Gale Warning 1002, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 260255 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

CORRECTED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ120-261500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-261500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35
KT DURING THE EVENING. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 35 KT 
DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARDS MORNING.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 
5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261248
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY.
$$

PKZ120-270300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS ALONG
THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING
BETWEEN 150W AND 160W AROUND 48N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS FLOWING
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN FEATURES WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. WHILE THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS PATTERN WILL
FLUCTUATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL FEATURES
THROUGH 60 HOURS. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN LOW
IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS
THAT KEEP A DOUBLE BARRELED SYSTEM LONGER. THE THE GFS/NAM DEEPENS
THE LOW RAPIDLY INTO A LARGE CONCENTRIC SYSTEM 12 TO 24 HOURS TOO
SOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE LATEST SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE NORTH
GULF COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH STORM FORCE WINDS. THE NORMAL WESTERN VALLEYS
ARE BEING DOWNSLOPED...WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES AND ICE PELLETS
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH...THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE MUCH WEAKER. THE ENERGY WILL
NOW SHIFT TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND SPREAD WEST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA BY MONDAY...CHOKING OFF THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATEST
SHORTWAVE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES AND INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. A CONCERN FOR THE EVENING WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE A FEW COLD POCKETS WILL HOLD ON.
THE WARM AIR ALOFT IS ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MIX THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE OUT. SO
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD THIS EVENING ALONG THE NUSHAGAK RIVER
VALLEY...MAINLY DILLINGHAM NORTH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN CHAIN...EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE NEXT LOW ROTATES UP
AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS STILL
CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW BUT CURRENTLY THINKING STRONG
GALES TO MINIMUM STORMS COULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...BRISTOL BAY...AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST A BIT PLACING THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG TERM FORECAST STILL CONSISTS OF A BUILDING
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL
WESTWARD INTO ALASKA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH VARIES
WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE THE TREND THAT THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 09