Brisk Wind Advisory 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 6 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A 989 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. A
FRONT STEMMING FROM THIS LOW STRETCHES OVER THE EASTERN BERING...THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. ELSEWHERE...A
WEAKENING 1000 MB LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS LOW IS MOVING EAST...PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTH
ALONG THE ALEUTIANS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE BERING
SEA...WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA FROM SIBERIA. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY
ARE FAIRLY MINOR. CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
WAS PREFERRED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE...WITH A SHORT TERM NAM BLEND
FOR DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS LEFT OVER FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER FRONT WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW FOR
KODIAK...WITH SNOW FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST.

.SOUTHWEST...
THE BERING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR OVER
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TODAY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST AND PRECIPITATION MOST WIDESPREAD. EXPECT PRIMARILY SNOW IN
THESE REGIONS...MIXING AT TIMES WITH RAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AKPEN AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
AS THE LOW IN THE BERING CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH...RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS LATE
MONDAY...KEEPING THE BULK OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MAIN FOCUS FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE ANOTHER LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH APR 09