Blizzard Watch 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST MON FEB 23 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL FROM THE 12Z RUN TODAY. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS/NAM TRACK AND IS VERY SIMILAR.
THE GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND CENTRAL
PRESSURES ARE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS...WHICH IS GOOD SINCE THE
MODELS YESTERDAY LOOKED TOO STRONG.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM IN THE BERING SEA
MOVES EASTWARD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
RESIDE OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE REPLACING THE CURRENT
RIDGE. HOWEVER THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PLACE ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE BY LATE FRIDAY.HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK
TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS KEEPING GUSTY WINDS FLOWING
THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.
IN THE WEST A FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS
STRENGTH AS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GET MOST OF THE WEATHER ACTION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA HAS BEEN RECEIVING SOME SNOW FROM THE WEAKENING FRONT
WHICH SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
GET THE FIRST OF TWO LOWS IN RAPID SUCCESSION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE NOTHING BUT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND A FEW GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING SEA TUESDAY WILL CROSS THE BERING SEA AND WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO THAT AREA. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL BE AT RISK FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH THIS LOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 191. BLIZZARD WATCH 195. HIGH WIND WATCH
         187.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 171 180 185.
         STORM 170 175 176 179 411 412 414.
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 413.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 09