Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
803 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.UPDATE...
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WINDS STAYING
UP SOME...BITTER WIND CHILLS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING THROUGH 4 AM FOR NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN. LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL SD.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
INTO THE CWA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT HIGH PRESSURE LAYS
SPRAWLED ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10KT
RANGE PROMPTING A CONTINUATION OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING INTO
THE EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED VERY LITTLE
DURING THE DAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SEE LITTLE REASON TO HANG ON TO WINDS MUCH PAST SUNSET.
UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...ALREADY LOW TEMPS...AND DEEP
SNOW PACK...I SEE NO REASON TO SUSPECT NEAR RECORDS LOWS BY THE
MORNING OF THE 15TH.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...REGION WILL SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR WESTERN
CWA...LACK OF SNOW PACK AND PROXIMITY TO WARMER AIR ON PERIPHERY
OF HIGH MEANS GREATER RECOVERY FROM MORNING TEMPERATURES. EAST OF
THE MISSOURI...PARTICULARLY JAMES/RED/TRAVERSE RIVER
VALLEYS...COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR AND RECOVERY WILL BE LESS
SIGNIFICANT. WARM ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED CWA WIDE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY BUT NOT BEFORE NORTHEAST CWA HAS
TIME TO RADIATE SOMEWHAT. GIVEN HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY...NEGATIVE TEENS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DURING THE EVENING AND MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT BEFORE MIXING ALLOWS
FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. A CLIPPER SYSTEM...FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED...WILL ALLOW A SHIFT OF LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT MIXING IN THE NORTHEAST RIVER
VALLEYS. THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL DEALS WITH
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODELS STILL ADVERTISING SOME WAVE TRAVERSING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS ON THE GFS AND EC INDICATE THAT SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TRAILING THE SFC LOWS AS THE PASS TO THE EAST. HAVE
TRENDED THE ERN SKY COVER UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY ALSO REFLECT COOLER
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMP ADVECTION...SO
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SOLN FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. THIS ALSO
AGREES WITH LATEST EC GUIDANCE. EC/GEFS ALSO POINT TOWARD BEST
MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCE OCCURRING FURTHER EAST...SO HAVE REMOVED
MENTION OF SAT PCPN ACROSS THE EAST. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION ATTM.

85H TEMPS THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARMUP HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF THIS
WARMER AIR DOWN...SO KEPT WITH INHERITED WARMING TREND IN THE
GRIDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DAY-GRANT-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-
     MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
540 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-151145-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
540 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009 /440 AM MST WED JAN 14 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM 25 TO 45 BELOW ZERO WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
516 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  13 N VIVIAN             44.12N 100.29W
01/14/2009  M-35.00 F        LYMAN              SD   MESONET

            FORT PIERRE RAWS SITE.

0841 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  6 E DANFORTH            44.25N 98.76W
01/14/2009  M-38.00 F        HAND               SD   MESONET

            HURON RAWS SITE

0853 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  ABERDEEN                45.47N 98.48W
01/14/2009  M-40.00 F        BROWN              SD   ASOS

0914 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  WHEATON                 45.81N 96.50W
01/14/2009  M-40.00 F        TRAVERSE           MN   AWOS

0915 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  10 W LONG LAKE          45.86N 99.41W
01/14/2009  M-40.00 F        MCPHERSON          SD   MESONET

            SAND LAKE RAWS SITE

0956 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  SISSETON                45.66N 97.05W
01/14/2009  M-43.00 F        ROBERTS            SD   ASOS

1034 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  7 N ROY LAKE STATE PARK 45.81N 97.43W
01/14/2009  M-46.00 F        MARSHALL           SD   MESONET

            MARSHALL COUNTY RAWS SITE

1053 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  WATERTOWN               44.91N 97.17W
01/14/2009  M-37.00 F        CODINGTON          SD   ASOS

1156 AM     EXTR WIND CHILL  ORTONVILLE              45.30N 96.44W
01/14/2009  M-42.00 F        BIG STONE          MN   AWOS

&&

DMOHR